專家：取消對(duì)華加征關(guān)稅才是拜登政府的明智之舉

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登5月10日表示，白宮可能會(huì)取消特朗普任期對(duì)中國(guó)輸美商品加征的部分關(guān)稅，以平抑物價(jià)。白宮正在審查這些關(guān)稅，并可能選擇將其一并取消。本文作者認(rèn)為，加征關(guān)稅成本被轉(zhuǎn)嫁給美國(guó)制造商和消費(fèi)者，美國(guó)目前通脹持續(xù)高漲，而要想解決通脹問題，取消對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征的關(guān)稅才是明智的選擇。

a man shops at a supermarket in foster city in california, the united states, april 12, 2022. [photo/xinhua]

us president joe biden said on tuesday that the white house could drop some of the donald trump-era tariffs on chinese goods to lower consumer prices in the united states, according to cnbc. the white house is reviewing the tariffs, and could opt to lift them altogether.

據(jù)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道報(bào)道，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登5月10日表示，白宮可能會(huì)取消特朗普任期對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征的部分關(guān)稅，以降低美國(guó)的消費(fèi)價(jià)格。白宮正在審查這些關(guān)稅，并可能選擇將其一并取消。

there have been constant appeals by a large number of business leaders to reduce, if not altogether lift, the tariffs on chinese goods, to help reduce skyrocketing inflation in the us. and senior us officials, including treasury secretary janet yellen and more than 140 congress members, have been discussing the issue for some time now.

許多商界領(lǐng)袖不斷呼吁取消或至少是減少對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收的關(guān)稅，從而緩解美國(guó)飆升的通貨膨脹率。包括財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)珍妮特·耶倫和140多名國(guó)會(huì)議員在內(nèi)的美國(guó)高官已經(jīng)就該問題商討了一段時(shí)間。

the consumer price index in the us broke the 7 percent mark in december 2021, the highest since 1982, and has continued to increase since the start of 2022, hitting 7.9 percent in february and 8.5 percent in march, forcing the federal reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on may 4, the largest rate hike in 22 years. the cpi for april is 8.3 percent, somewhat abated, though still high.

2021年12月，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（cpi）突破了1982年以來(lái)的最高紀(jì)錄7%，并自2022年初持續(xù)上漲，2月和3月分別達(dá)到7.9%和8.5%，這迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在5月4日加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)，這是美國(guó)22年來(lái)最大幅度加息。4月份的cpi高達(dá)8.3%，但較之前有所下降。

a week before biden's remarks, on may 3 to be precise, the us trade representative issued a notice on statutory four-year review of section 301 tariffs on chinese goods. it said that, according to the us trade expansion act 1974, section 301 tariffs on chinese goods expire on july 6, so those that have benefited from the tariffs should submit their opinions on an extension before that date. if their requests are in favor of an extension, the tariffs will continue beyond july 6.

準(zhǔn)確地說，在拜登發(fā)表講話的前一周，即5月3日，美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表發(fā)布了一份關(guān)于根據(jù)“301條款”對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征關(guān)稅的四年法定復(fù)審?fù)ㄖＢ暶鞣Q，根據(jù)美國(guó)《1974年貿(mào)易法》，對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征的“301關(guān)稅”將于7月6日到期，因此那些受益于對(duì)華加征關(guān)稅的美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)行業(yè)代表應(yīng)在該日期之前提交延期意見。如果他們支持延期，7月6日之后將繼續(xù)征收這些關(guān)稅。

the trump administration had imposed tariffs on chinese goods in steps. hence, the statutory review for the rest of the tariffs will be completed only by sept 1, 2023.

特朗普政府逐步對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征了關(guān)稅。因此，其余關(guān)稅的法定復(fù)審將在2023年9月1日之前完成。

if the white house follows that course, the reduction in tariffs will be too small, too late to help reduce inflation. instead, the right choice would be to lift the tariffs altogether.

如果白宮遵循這一方針，關(guān)稅削減規(guī)模太小，行動(dòng)太遲，將無(wú)法幫助降低通脹。相反，正確的選擇是完全取消這些關(guān)稅。

[photo/china daily]

first, the lifting of all the tariffs could quickly bring down the cpi in the us. a recent policy brief by the peterson institute of international economies estimated that the removal of tariffs on chinese goods including steel and aluminum could reduce the cpi by 1.3 percentage points.

首先，取消這些關(guān)稅可能會(huì)迅速降低美國(guó)的cpi。彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所最近發(fā)布的一份政策簡(jiǎn)報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)，取消鋼鐵和鋁等中國(guó)商品的關(guān)稅可能會(huì)將cpi降低1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

the figure is close to that calculated by the chinese government in a white paper issued in 2018. according to the white paper, the lifting of tariffs on low-cost imports from china will reduce the cpi in the us by 1 to 2 percentage points. why? because tariffs are paid by importers, not exporters, which in this case are us companies that pass the added cost down to the consumers, be they the downstream manufacturers or individual buyers.

這一數(shù)字與中國(guó)政府在2018年發(fā)布的白皮書中估算的數(shù)字接近。根據(jù)這份白皮書，對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的低成本商品取消關(guān)稅將使美國(guó)的cpi降低1到2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這是為什么呢？因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅是由進(jìn)口商支付的，而不是由出口商支付的，在這種情況下，美國(guó)公司將增加的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者，無(wú)論是下游制造商還是個(gè)人買家。

a moody's study has found that 92.4 percent of the added tariffs on chinese imports are borne by the us side. and a joint study by the us-china business council and oxford economics found that tariffs on chinese imports had reduced the us' gdp by $108 billion, or 0.5 percent, and household incomes by $88 billion in 2018-19.

穆迪公司的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收的附加關(guān)稅中有92.4%由美方承擔(dān)。美中貿(mào)易委員會(huì)和牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院聯(lián)合開展的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，2018-2019年間，對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收關(guān)稅使美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（gdp）減少0.5%，即1080億美元（約合人民幣7308億元），家庭收入減少了880億美元（約合人民幣5955億元）。

second, the tariffs have been of virtually no use in checking chinese exports to the us. according to china customs data, chinese exports to the us hit an all-time high in 2021-$576.11 billion, up 20.4 percent over 2018, when the previous record was set before the effects of the tariffs were felt.

第二，這些附加關(guān)稅在限制中國(guó)對(duì)美出口方面幾乎毫無(wú)作用。根據(jù)中國(guó)海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)對(duì)美出口在2021年創(chuàng)下歷史新高5761.1億美元（約合人民幣38975.6億元），較2018年增長(zhǎng)20.4%。2018年時(shí)加征關(guān)稅的影響尚未顯現(xiàn)。

compared with 2020, chinese exports to the us rose by 27.5 percent, more than that to asean member states (26.1 percent) which didn't impose any additional tariffs on chinese goods. since the us tariffs have made no difference to bilateral trade, what is the rationale of keeping them?

與2020年相比，中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口增長(zhǎng)了27.5%，超過了對(duì)東盟成員國(guó)（26.1%）的出口增長(zhǎng)，后者沒有對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收任何額外關(guān)稅。既然美國(guó)加征關(guān)稅對(duì)雙邊貿(mào)易沒有影響，那么為什么要保留關(guān)稅呢？

and third, the us is obliged to follow international rules. a world trade organization panel found that the section 301 tariffs violate the general agreement on tariffs and trade clauses and are thus illegal. as a member of the wto, the us has no excuse to continue with the tariffs, still less to keep using them as a bargain. in fact, the piie policy brief said the us should pursue trade liberalization to reduce inflation.

第三，美國(guó)有義務(wù)遵守國(guó)際規(guī)則。世界貿(mào)易組織的一個(gè)小組發(fā)現(xiàn)，“301關(guān)稅”違反了《關(guān)稅及貿(mào)易總協(xié)定》的條款，因此是非法的。作為世貿(mào)組織成員國(guó)，美國(guó)沒有理由繼續(xù)加征關(guān)稅，更不用說繼續(xù)將其作為一種討價(jià)還價(jià)的手段。事實(shí)上，彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所政策簡(jiǎn)報(bào)稱，美國(guó)應(yīng)該追求貿(mào)易自由化以降低通脹。

based on the three reasons, the correct choice for the biden administration would be to swiftly lift all the added tariffs on chinese goods. the move will result in three immediate benefits. it will help reduce the highest inflation in the us in 40 years, be a good gesture toward improving sino-us trade relations, and a step in the right direction to show the us is back to following wto rules.

基于這三個(gè)原因，拜登政府的正確選擇是盡快取消對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收的所有附加關(guān)稅。此舉將帶來(lái)三個(gè)立竿見影的好處：將有助于降低美國(guó)40年來(lái)最高的通貨膨脹率；是改善中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系的一個(gè)良好姿態(tài)；也是表明美國(guó)重新遵守世貿(mào)組織規(guī)則，朝著正確方向邁出的一步。

the author is a senior fellow at the center for china and globalization.the views don't necessarily reflect those of china daily.

本文作者何偉文是中國(guó)與全球化研究中心高級(jí)研究員。文章觀點(diǎn)并不代表本網(wǎng)站立場(chǎng)。

編輯：董靜

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)